[1]卢 引,宋庭新. 水面舰船坞修项目进度风险仿真[J].湖北工业大学学报,2022,(4):9-13+53.
　LU Yin,SONG Tingxin. Schedule Risk Simulation of Surface Ship Dock Repair Project[J].,2022,(4):9-13+53.
点击复制

 水面舰船坞修项目进度风险仿真()
分享到：

《湖北工业大学学报》[ISSN:1003-4684/CN:42-1752/Z]

卷:
期数:
2022年第4期
页码:
9-13+53
栏目:
湖北工业大学学报
出版日期:
2022-08-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
 Schedule Risk Simulation of Surface Ship Dock Repair Project
文章编号:
1003-4684(2022)04-0009-05
作者:
 卢 引;  宋庭新
 湖北工业大学机械工程学院， 湖北 武汉 430068
Author(s):
 LU Yin;  SONG Tingxin
 School of Mechanical Engineering, Hubei Univ. of Tech.,Wuhan 430068, China
关键词:
故障模式与影响分析;  多智能体仿真;  进度风险控制;  舰船坞修
Keywords:
 ; failure mode and effect analysis;  multi-agent simulation;  schedule risk control;  ships dock
分类号:
TP391.9
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
 为解决水面舰船维修过程中因风险因素导致的进度延期等问题，在舰船坞修项目工序分解的基础上，通过故障模式与影响分析（FMEA）方法建立各维修进程风险识别表；运用多智能体系统对舰船坞修项目进行仿真建模，分别建立“工序单元”和“风险单元”两种智能体，构建基于多智能体的项目进度风险评估模型；通过仿真实验，得到风险因素敏感度排序，提出一种对风险因素进行差异化的控制手段。对风险因素进行控制后，项目按时完工率提升到91%左右，验证了仿真模型和风险控制手段的可靠性。
Abstract:
 In order to solve the problems of schedule delay caused by risk factors in the process of surface ship maintenance, this paper first establishes risk identification table of each maintenance process based on the breakdown of shipyard repair project procedure, and then simulates the shipyard repair project by using multi-agent system, and establishes "procedure unit" and "working unit" respectively which constructs a project schedule risk assessment model based on multi-agent. Finally, through the simulation results, the sensitivity ranking of risk factors is obtained, and a risk control method can be used for reference is proposed. The reliability of the simulation model is verified by the comparative analysis before and after the control.

参考文献/References:

[1] BATES A, GRIFFIS F H.Program evaluation and review technique (PERT) in construction schedule risk assessment[J]. China Urban Economy, 2012(3):246-249.
[2] CHOUDHRY R M, ASLAM M A, HINZE J WET AL. Cost and schedule risk analysis of b-ridge construction in Pakistan: establishing risk guidelines[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering & Management, 2014, 140(7): 1-9.
[3] ALVANCHI A, AZIMI R, LEE S H, et al.Off-site construction planning using discrete-event simulation[J]. Journal of Architectural Engineering, 2012(18):114-122.
[4] LUU V T, KIM S Y, TUAN N V, et al. Quantifying schedule risk in construction projects using Bayesian belief networks[J]. International Journal of Project Management, 2009, 27(1):39-50.
[5] 柴国荣,许阳.进度视角下地铁项目施工安全风险的系统动力学分析[J].科技管理研究,2016,36(21):85-90.
[6] 钟登华，刘奎建，杨晓刚.施工进度计划柔性网络仿真的不确定性研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005(2):107-112.
[7] 李杨,徐峰,谢光强,等.多智能体技术发展及其应用综述[J].计算机工程与应用,2018,54(9):13-21.
[8] 段宗武，王心亮，陈虹.舰船装备综合保障工程顶层设计初步研究[J].舰船科学技术,2011,33(2):3-9．
[9] 冯佩富. B38K型船舶建造项目进度风险管理研究[D].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学,2018.

相似文献/References:

[1]宋庭新,覃小瑞,石怀斌.大型舰船海上后勤保障的调度与仿真[J].湖北工业大学学报,2022,(1):6.
　SONG Tingxin,QIN Xiaorui,SHI Huaibin. Scheduling and Simulation of Marine Logistics Support for Large Ships[J].,2022,(4):6.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
［收稿日期］ 2021-07-14
［第一作者］ 卢 引（1997-），男，湖北恩施人，湖北工业大学硕士研究生，研究方向为多智能体仿真
［通信作者］ 宋庭新（1972-），男，湖北宜都人，工学博士，湖北工业大学教授，研究方向为工业工程及智能制造
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-08-29